Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to demonize the Jewish state and recently threatened to attack Israel.
By Hezy Laing
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to demonize the Jewish state and recently threatened to attack Israel.
History teaches that these kinds of threats should not be dismissed out of hand. What then might a Turkish attack look like?
A Turkish attack on Israel would likely center on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Syrian border, leveraging Turkey’s proven “drone and proxy” model.
The offensive might begin with a massive deployment of Bayraktar TB3 and Akinci drones launched from the TCG Anadolu, Turkey’s amphibious assault ship.
These UAVs would coordinate with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) such as the Albatros to harass Israeli offshore gas rigs and naval patrols.
Simultaneously, Turkish-backed Sunni proxies in northern Syria—possibly integrated into a new Syrian national force—would launch cross-border raids and rocket barrages into the Golan Heights, aiming to stretch the IDF across multiple fronts.
Israel’s response would be immediate and multi-layered. Its Arrow 3 and David’s Sling systems would engage Turkish Tayfun ballistic missiles, though sustained salvos could strain interceptor stockpiles.
To regain the initiative, Israel would likely use its F-35 Adir fleet for surgical, long-distance strikes against Turkish UAV control centers and naval assets in the Mediterranean.
Recognizing the proxy threat, the IDF might expand its “buffer zones” in Syria, conducting airstrikes against Turkish military convoys to disrupt supply lines.
While Turkey’s active personnel of over 480,000 provides a massive numerical advantage, Israel’s superiority in military electronics and US strategic support would likely force the conflict into a war of attrition or a rapid diplomatic intervention by NATO.
Turkey is a NATO member with deep economic ties to Europe and the United States, and any direct military action against Israel could trigger diplomatic and economic consequences.
