A growing number of Israeli, American, and European security analysts argue that if President Donald Trump were to reach a new accommodation or partial sanctions‑relief framework with Iran, Israel would likely act independently against Iranian strategic assets.

By Hezy Laing

A growing number of Israeli, American, and European security analysts argue that if President Donald Trump were to reach a new accommodation or partial sanctions‑relief framework with Iran, Israel would likely act independently against Iranian strategic assets.

This assessment appears in the 2026 IDF Strategic Outlook, the INSS Annual Report 2026, and multiple statements from senior Israeli officials including Defense Minister Israel Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir.

Analysts note that Israel has repeatedly stated—across governments—that it reserves the right to act alone if it perceives an existential nuclear threat, a position reaffirmed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a January 2026 Knesset address.

Leadership and Decapitation Targets

The initial wave of strikes focused heavily on decapitation, targeting the “entire Iranian leadership”.

Israel conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Israeli officials assessed that they killed Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh, and the Iranian “intelligence chief”.

However, reports indicated that Khamenei may have moved to a secure location before the strikes, and the condition of President Masoud Pezeshkian and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remained unclear.

This suggests that while the top tier of leadership was targeted, the survival of key figures and the potential for a reconstituted leadership structure would remain high-value targets in any renewed campaign.

Military and Nuclear Infrastructure

The IDF announced that it had targeted “hundreds of military targets,” including missile launchers in western Iran.

Israel destroyed at least one-third of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers during the June 2025 war, but Iran reportedly reconstituted its stockpile in the months leading up to the 2026 conflict.

The IDF chief of staff stated that strikes destroyed “80%” of Iran’s air defenses and “60%” of its missile launchers.

This leaves a significant portion of Iran’s missile launchers (40%) and a smaller portion of its air defenses (20%) potentially operational or rebuilt.

Furthermore, the campaign widened beyond core military targets as the war progressed, with the combined force beginning to strike targets beyond narrowly defined military assets.

This indicates that any remaining hardened military sites, underground facilities, and mobile launcher networks would be primary candidates for renewed strikes.

Economic and Infrastructure Targets

A significant escalation occurred on March 8, 2026, when Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian oil infrastructure for the first time, destroying four large oil storage facilities on the outskirts of Tehran that helped provide 10 million people with basic services.

US forces also struck an Iranian water desalination plant on Qeshm Island, terminating the water supply for dozens of villages.

Israeli media reported a potential strategy focused on “weakening Iran’s logistical and economic capabilities by targeting vital facilities”.

This suggests that if attacks were renewed, the remaining oil refineries, petrochemical plants, power grids, water infrastructure, and transportation hubs would be considered legitimate targets to cripple the Iranian economy and state capacity.

Naval and Strategic Chokepoints

There were unconfirmed reports of strikes on the IRGC Navy frigate Jamaran and the IRGC Navy Imam Ali Navy Base in Chabahar.

The Strait of Hormuz remained a critical strategic interest for Iran, with Iranian officials framing control over it as a key component of deterrence.

Any renewed campaign would likely target remaining Iranian naval assets, including fast attack craft, anti-ship missile batteries, and coastal defense systems, to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait.