Intelligence assessments indicate that some 5,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the start of the war.
By Hezy Laing
Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization, is facing a moment of rare internal reckoning following the death of its long‑time secretary‑general Hassan Nasrallah and the loss of thousands of its soldiers and officers.
Nasrallah’s successor, senior commander Hashem Safieddine, widely regarded as one of the group’s most strategic thinkers, reportedly told field operatives in Beirut’s Dahieh district that the organization faces “an unwinnable military equation” against the IDF.
Lebanese security officials cited by regional media outlets said Safieddine admitted that despite Hezbollah’s vast arsenal, the IDF’s combination of intelligence, airpower, and electronic warfare makes a decisive victory “militarily impossible.”
Safieddine, born in 1964 in Deir Qanoun al‑Nahr and a cousin of Nasrallah, has been central to Hezbollah’s political and military leadership since the 1990s.
Hezbollah has also suffered significant battlefield losses, particularly in the last three months.
Intelligence assessments indicate that some 5,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the start of the war, including senior field commanders such as Ali Hussein Burji, Abbas Raad, and Wissam al‑Tawil.
Since Israel’s Operation Beeper and expanded precision‑strike campaign in early 2024, Hezbollah has also lost dozens of command centers, surveillance sites, and long‑range missile units.
Lebanese media outlets have reported that the organization has experienced its highest casualty rate since the 2006 Lebanon War, with entire Radwan Force platoons degraded by targeted strikes in the Bint Jbeil, Maroun al‑Ras, and Aita al‑Shaab sectors.
Safieddine’s admission coincides with growing internal Lebanese opposition to Hezbollah, including from within the Shiite community that historically formed its core base.
Lebanon’s severe economic collapse, which the World Bank has described as one of the worst financial crises globally since the 19th century, has intensified public anger toward Hezbollah’s role in provoking conflict with Israel.
Prominent Shiite figures such as Ali al‑Amin, a well‑known Shiite cleric critical of Hezbollah, and the late intellectual Lokman Slim, assassinated in 2021, have accused the organization of dragging Lebanon into destructive wars that serve Iranian interests rather than Lebanese sovereignty.
In cities such as Tyre, Nabatieh, and Baalbek, residents have publicly complained about the economic cost of Hezbollah’s military activities, the destruction of infrastructure, and the loss of tourism and agriculture revenue.
Polling by the Beirut‑based Arab Barometer in 2026 even showed a significant decline in Shiite support for a Hezbollah, the organizations main base of support.
Within Hezbollah‑controlled municipalities, local leaders have expressed frustration over the group’s unilateral decisions, arguing that Lebanon cannot withstand another prolonged conflict.
Safieddine’s remarks appear to reflect this shifting internal landscape, acknowledging both the military reality and the growing domestic pressure facing Hezbollah as Lebanon struggles through its most severe crisis in modern history.
