These limitations allow Hezbollah to violate the ceasefire without fear of a decisive Israeli response.
By Hezy Laing
Recent U.S. policy—specifically President Donald Trump’s decision to restrict Israeli military activity in Lebanon and halt strikes in Beirut—has unintentionally strengthened Hezbollah rather than weakening it.
These limitations allow Hezbollah to violate the ceasefire without fear of a decisive Israeli response. As a result, Hezbollah now controls the pace, scale, and nature of clashes with Israel and is able to shape new “rules of engagement” to its advantage.
Trump’s intention, as described in the text, was to create diplomatic space for negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government led by President Joseph Aoun.
The U.S. administration believes that a diplomatic process, combined with a broader American agreement with Iran, could isolate Hezbollah, delegitimize its armed activity, and potentially force it to place its heavy weapons under international oversight.
This expectation is unrealistic. In Lebanon’s complex political environment, the imposed restraint may instead empower Hezbollah, which opposes the diplomatic track and serves as Iran’s primary proxy.
Israel’s main strategic question is how to neutralize the security threat posed by Hezbollah.
While Aoun’s government would prefer to see Hezbollah disarmed, Lebanese leaders acknowledge they cannot achieve this themselves and are unwilling to risk a renewed civil war.
Therefore Israel should not pay the diplomatic price Aoun seeks—namely, limiting Israeli military activity and accepting conditions that would restrict future operations.
Israel may have had little choice but to accept Trump’s invitation to negotiations and the accompanying ceasefire, but now it must persuade the U.S. administration that diplomacy is unlikely to weaken Hezbollah.
Instead, the restrictions on Israeli operations may entrench Iranian influence in Lebanon, contrary to American interests.
Israel must avoid playing by Hezbollah’s or Aoun’s rules and respond to ceasefire violations with disproportionate force to alter Hezbollah’s strategic assumptions.
