In order to defeat Hamas, and ensure another Oct. 7th massacre never occurs, the city must be taken.
By Hezy Laing
After two years of warfare, Gaza City remains the final and greatest Hamas stronghold in the Gaza Strip. In order to defeat Hamas, and ensure another Oct. 7th massacre never occurs, the city must be taken.
Last week the IDF launched the beginning of its campaign to conquer Gaza City. The first phase – softening up the area with saturation bombing is mostly over. But winter is fast approaching and with-it cold weather and rain. How long will it take for the IDF’s ground operation?
According to current Israeli military estimates, is expected to take two to three months. The maneuver involves three regular divisions entering the city from multiple directions, with a deliberate and methodical advance that prioritizes troop safety over speed.
The operation began in mid-September 2025, following weeks of intensified airstrikes and civilian evacuation orders. As of now, around 450,000 Arabs have evacuated, which is about half the population.
The IDF hopes that further evacuations will occur as fighting intensifies, reducing the risk to noncombatants.
Military planners anticipate that clearing the city of Hamas fighters, weapons caches, and tunnel infrastructure will take significantly longer than the initial conquest.
Even after territorial control is achieved, the IDF expects Hamas to shift to guerrilla tactics, requiring ongoing operations to secure the area.
This timeline could also be shortened or extended depending on several additional factors:
Hostage negotiations: Increasing pressure on Hamas could lead to a deal which could pause or reshape the offensive.
Civilian evacuation rates: Slower evacuations may delay troop movements.
International pressure: Diplomatic fallout could influence operational tempo.
Hamas resistance: The intensity and coordination of Hamas’s defense will affect progress.
In short, while the IDF aims to seize Gaza City within 60 to 90 days, the broader campaign to neutralize Hamas and stabilize the area may stretch well into early 2026.
Here’s a range of Israeli expert and official estimates on how long it will take the IDF to fully conquer and control Gaza City:
1. Israel Hayom: “According to estimates, taking control of the city will take two to three months.” This reflects the IDF’s plan to advance slowly and methodically with three regular divisions entering from different directions.
2. Kan News via Ynet: “Leaked details suggest a four-month campaign… the operation in the Strip will last at least the next four months.” This longer timeline accounts for mass evacuations, infrastructure setup, and the mobilization of over 100,000 troops.
3. Galei Tzahal Radio: “The IDF estimates that it will take two to three months to complete the takeover of Gaza, until December 2025 or January 2026.” This includes the time needed for civilian evacuation and the establishment of humanitarian zones.
4. IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin While not giving a precise timeline, Defrin stated that the IDF already controls about 40% of Gaza City and is pressing ahead with plans to fully capture it.
He emphasized that if no alternative framework emerges for post-war governance, Israel may establish a military government in Gaza.
These estimates vary between two to four months, depending on the pace of civilian evacuation, resistance from Hamas, and potential hostage negotiations.
All sources agree that even after territorial control is achieved, guerrilla warfare and stabilization efforts will likely extend well beyond the initial conquest.
Foreign military experts and analysts estimate the timeline for the IDF’s control of Gaza City could be considerably longer.
Michael Knights – Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Knights, an expert on urban warfare, noted that “urban combat in dense environments like Gaza can take months, even years, depending on resistance and civilian presence.” He compared the situation to Mosul and Fallujah, where U.S.-led forces took 9 months and 6 weeks respectively to clear cities of similar size and complexity.
Anthony Cordesman – Former Director of Intelligence, CSIS
Cordesman warned that “the conquest of Gaza City is only the beginning. Holding it, preventing insurgency, and managing humanitarian fallout could take far longer.” He emphasized that guerrilla warfare and tunnel networks will likely prolong IDF presence well into 2026.
Eliana Fleming – Defense Analyst
Fleming reported that foreign observers believe the IDF’s two-to-three-month estimate is optimistic, given the difficulty of evacuating one million civilians, the risk of Hamas blending in, and the need for humanitarian zones.
Unnamed U.S. Defense Source (via AP reporting)
A senior U.S. official told reporters that “Israel has a very short window of time to achieve its goals before international pressure mounts.” This suggests that while the IDF may plan for 60–90 days, external constraints could shorten or complicate the timeline.
