Even if Hamas surrenders its weapons, Iranian assistance and surviving financial networks could enable the terrorist organization to rebuild its arsenal and threaten Israel again.
By Hezy Laing
Even if Hamas handed over every rocket and rifle in its arsenal, it could still find a way to rebuild its military power. As long as the money, technical expertise, and manufacturing networks survive, disarmament may prove temporary.
That is one of the greatest challenges facing efforts to ensure that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) can never repeat the October 7 massacre.
Hamas: We Won’t Hand Over Our Weapons
In a September 3 analysis published by the Gatestone Institute, veteran Palestinian affairs journalist Khaled Abu Toameh highlighted a revealing statement by senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan.
“No one said that we will hand over our weapons,” Hamdan declared.
According to Hamdan, the proposed arrangement involved the “containment and storage” of Hamas’s heavy weapons rather than their surrender.
The distinction is critical. Storing weapons under an agreed arrangement is not necessarily the same as permanently removing them from a terrorist organization’s control.
More recent negotiations suggest that Hamas may be willing to accept some form of internationally supervised weapons arrangement. However, the extent of any proposed disarmament, who would control the weapons, and how compliance would be enforced remain major points of contention.
Islamic Jihad Vows to Continue Fighting
The position of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another Iranian-backed terrorist organization operating in Gaza, raises additional concerns.
In an October 8 analysis, Abu Toameh reported that PIJ Secretary-General Ziad al-Nakhala had reaffirmed the organization’s commitment to “the path of jihad and resistance,” declaring that its struggle would continue “by all possible means.”
PIJ also praised Iran and other armed organizations aligned with Tehran.
Although Hamas and PIJ have separate leadership structures and political interests, both have benefited from Iranian assistance. Any comprehensive Gaza disarmament arrangement would therefore need to address both organizations.
How Iran Helps Hamas Build Its Weapons
Iran has spent decades helping Palestinian terrorist organizations develop their military capabilities.
According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has provided funding, weapons, and training to Palestinian terrorist groups.
But the danger extends beyond the delivery of finished weapons.
Iranian assistance has contributed to the development of Hamas’s rocket capabilities, including technical knowledge that supports local weapons production.
This means Hamas does not necessarily need to smuggle every finished rocket into Gaza. If it retains trained weapons makers, manufacturing equipment, and access to essential materials, it could eventually produce replacements locally.
Destroying an arsenal is one challenge. Eliminating the ability to rebuild it is another.
The Money Behind the Weapons
Iranian financial assistance has also played a major role in sustaining Hamas.
The U.S. Treasury’s March 2026 National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment identified hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian state sponsorship among Hamas’s funding sources.
Despite significant financial and military losses, Treasury warned that important elements of Hamas’s financial infrastructure remained intact.
A more recent discovery illustrates the problem.
On October 2, 2026, Treasury announced sanctions against a Hamas financing network that had allegedly collected more than $2 million between 2020 and 2026, including $1.5 million after the October 7 massacre.
The network involved fraudulent charitable organizations based in France and cryptocurrency transfers used to move money to Hamas.
Although Treasury did not identify this particular network as Iranian-controlled, it demonstrates that Hamas can obtain funding through international channels beyond direct Iranian assistance.
Such financial networks matter because money can ultimately be used to acquire equipment, support operatives, and restore military capabilities.
What Would Make Disarmament Permanent?
For Israel, a credible disarmament agreement would require far more than collecting rifles and rockets.
It would need to address underground tunnels, weapons factories, explosives stockpiles, military command structures, and the ability to acquire or manufacture new weapons.
Just as importantly, any agreement would require effective monitoring and enforcement to ensure that surrendered weapons are not quietly replaced.
Border controls, financial sanctions, and the dismantling of weapons-production infrastructure could significantly reduce the danger of rearmament.
Iran’s documented support for Hamas and PIJ makes these safeguards particularly important, although Tehran’s influence does not mean it controls every decision made by either organization.
Ultimately, the central question is not simply whether Hamas agrees to surrender its weapons, but whether it loses the practical ability to threaten Israel again.
For Israel, the real test of any Gaza peace agreement will not be how many weapons Hamas hands over. It will be whether Hamas and Islamic Jihad are permanently denied the means to rebuild them.
