The decisive period lies between the end of this week’s negotiations and the onset of Ramadan.
By Hezy Laing
Experts say the timing of any potential U.S. military move against Iran will hinge on the outcome of the nuclear disarmament talks taking place in Turkey this week.
While the Trump administration has emphasized that diplomacy remains its preferred path, analysts note that Washington’s military posture in the region has shifted noticeably in recent days.
Dr. Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argues that the White House will “almost certainly wait for the Ankara talks to conclude before making any major strategic decisions.”
He points out that the administration wants to demonstrate that it pursued negotiations in good faith before considering force.
Schanzer also notes that the Pentagon has repositioned assets in the Gulf, including additional air defense systems and naval deployments, signaling readiness without committing to escalation.
Retired CENTCOM commander Gen. Joseph Votel offers a similar assessment, saying that if the United States chooses to act militarily, it would likely do so after the Turkey talks but well before the start of Ramadan, expected to begin on March 10.
“Historically, Washington avoids initiating major operations during Ramadan due to regional sensitivities,” Votel explains, pointing to past U.S. actions in 2017 and 2020 that were deliberately timed outside the holy month.
He adds that the Trump administration is acutely aware of how regional religious dynamics can shape the political fallout of any strike.
Middle East scholar Dr. Ray Takeyh emphasizes that the administration is balancing diplomatic pressure with domestic and strategic concerns.
With Iran accelerating uranium enrichment and continuing to support proxy attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria, Takeyh argues that the White House may feel compelled to respond if diplomacy fails.
“If the talks collapse and Iran continues its current trajectory, the administration will act — and it will act before Ramadan,” he says, suggesting that any initial strike package would likely target IRGC infrastructure in Syria and Iraq rather than Iran itself.
While none of the experts predict an inevitable confrontation, all agree that the decisive period lies between the end of this week’s negotiations and the onset of Ramadan.
