Despite heavy military losses, Iran is rebuilding parts of its missile program and adapting its attacks, raising concerns about its ability to challenge Israel’s air defenses.
By Hezy Laing
Iran has suffered devastating blows to its military infrastructure, yet its missile threat has not disappeared.
Reports that Tehran has resumed limited missile production suggest that the Islamic Republic is working to restore its capabilities even as Israel and its allies seek to contain them.
For Brig. Gen. (res.) Oren Solomon, a former senior official involved in policy planning and the Iranian nuclear issue at the Prime Minister’s Office, the danger extends beyond the weapons Iran still possesses.
“This is a people that learns very quickly how to penetrate our defense systems,” Solomon warns.
His concern is that Iran is not simply recovering from military setbacks. It is also studying the effectiveness of Israeli and American defenses and looking for ways to improve future attacks.
Why Iran is so difficult to weaken
Iran’s enormous territory, large population and domestic weapons industry make it a particularly difficult adversary. Even after suffering extensive damage, the regime can preserve military equipment, relocate operations and attempt to rebuild damaged facilities.
In September 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had resumed assembling ballistic missiles using stockpiled components at underground facilities, including the Khojir complex.
Production reportedly remained well below previous levels, but the development illustrated an important reality: destroying missile factories does not necessarily eliminate a country’s ability to manufacture weapons.
Solomon also argues that Iran’s leadership is prepared to accept extraordinary economic and human costs in pursuit of its ideological and military objectives. That willingness, he believes, makes the regime especially dangerous to underestimate.
Learning how to challenge Israeli defenses
Iran’s missile forces are not fighting blindly. Every attack offers opportunities to assess how defensive systems respond, which weapons are intercepted and what changes might improve the chances of future strikes.
Iran has reportedly adjusted its missile operations, including launching weapons from deeper inside its territory and changing attack patterns. Such tactics can complicate defensive planning, although they do not mean Iran has discovered a reliable way to defeat Israel’s missile shield.
Israel’s defenses include the Arrow system, designed to intercept ballistic missiles, and David’s Sling, which provides another layer of protection against certain missiles and rockets.
One particularly troubling development is Iran’s use of cluster warheads.
Unlike an ordinary missile carrying a single explosive warhead, a cluster missile releases numerous smaller explosives across a wide area. This makes it especially dangerous if the missile is not intercepted before those explosives separate.
In March 2026, The Times of Israel reported that the IDF assessed that approximately half the Iranian ballistic missiles launched at Israel during that phase of the fighting carried cluster warheads.
Although Israel’s defenses can intercept missiles carrying these weapons, the widespread dispersal of smaller explosives creates additional dangers for civilians.
Another challenge: interceptor supplies
Iranian missile attacks also place pressure on the weapons used to stop them.
Each defensive interceptor is an expensive, sophisticated missile that takes time to manufacture. During sustained attacks, Israel and its allies must balance the need to protect threatened areas with the importance of preserving sufficient interceptors for future barrages.
American forces reportedly fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors during the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, according to The Wall Street Journal.
That figure illustrates the demands of prolonged missile defense, although it does not reveal the size of Israel’s remaining interceptor stocks.
Repeated attacks could place pressure on defensive inventories, particularly if replacement production cannot keep pace with expenditure. Whether exhausting those supplies is a deliberate Iranian objective remains an assessment rather than an established fact.
Why Tehran’s intentions matter
Solomon believes Western governments make a serious mistake when they assume Iran’s leadership evaluates military losses and economic damage according to conventional Western calculations.
He argues that the regime’s religious ideology and hostility toward Israel can lead it to accept sacrifices that other governments might consider unacceptable.
Iran’s leadership must still weigh military capabilities, domestic pressures and the consequences of further confrontation. Nevertheless, Solomon’s warning highlights the danger of assuming that heavy losses alone will persuade Tehran to abandon its ambitions.
For Israel, the danger is not simply the missiles Iran still possesses. It is the possibility that Tehran is learning from every attack, rebuilding what it can, and preparing to use those lessons in the next confrontation.
