‘Iran is getting better at hiding, but the U.S. and Israel are getting better at finding.’

By Hezy Laing

Iran’s ballistic‑missile force has become the core of its deterrence strategy, and recent conflicts have pushed Tehran to rethink how it protects its launchers from U.S. and Israeli strikes.

During the July 2025 confrontation, Israel succeeded in destroying several key launch sites by combining satellite surveillance, rapid‑response airpower, and precision strikes on exposed mobile launchers.

That experience exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s deployment patterns and forced the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to overhaul its defensive approach.

Iran’s most significant adaptation has been the expansion of mountain‑based launch complexes, particularly in the Zagros and Alborz ranges.

These hardened sites—some showcased in Iranian state media—use tunnels, cavern systems, and underground roads to conceal mobile launchers and make pre‑emptive strikes far more difficult.

“Iran learned that fixed, open launchers are liabilities,” says Dr. Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School.

“Mountain shelters give them survivability they simply didn’t have before.”

At the same time, Iran has sharply increased missile production.

Western intelligence estimates suggest Iran now produces more than 1,000 ballistic and cruise missiles per year, a major jump from pre‑2025 levels.

The IRGC has also expanded its inventory of solid‑fuel systems, which require less preparation time and are easier to hide.

According to Israeli analyst Tal Inbar, “Iran’s shift to solid‑fuel missiles is one of the most important developments—they can be launched with minimal warning.”

There have also been persistent reports that Iran has acquired additional mobile launchers from China, though Beijing denies direct transfers.

U.S. officials say Iran’s launcher fleet has grown by “dozens of units” since 2025, giving Tehran more flexibility in dispersing assets.

Iran’s total ballistic‑missile inventory is now estimated at several thousand, significantly higher than during the July 2025 conflict.

For the United States and Israel, the challenge is to counter this growing resilience.

Their approach relies on improved satellite coverage, AI‑driven pattern analysis, and closer coordination between air, cyber, and space‑based intelligence.

“The race now is between concealment and detection,” notes missile expert Fabian Hinz.

“Iran is getting better at hiding, but the U.S. and Israel are getting better at finding.”