If Iran believes the U.S. threatens its hegemony, Hezbollah is likely to respond in a way that signals solidarity.
By Hezy Laing
Growing concern is emerging among regional analysts that Hezbollah may be preparing to join a wider confrontation if tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate.
While no direct involvement has been confirmed, several experts say the indicators coming out of Lebanon and Tehran suggest that Hezbollah is positioning itself for a potential expansion of hostilities.
Dr. Yael Ben‑Ami, a senior Middle East researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies, explains that Hezbollah’s decision‑making is closely tied to Iran’s strategic calculations.
“Hezbollah does not act in a vacuum,” she says. “Its leadership sees itself as part of a unified front with Tehran. If Iran believes that U.S. actions threaten its core interests, Hezbollah is likely to respond in a way that signals solidarity and deterrence.”
Military analyst Col. (res.) Daniel Harari notes that Hezbollah has already increased its operational readiness along the northern border.
According to him, this is not yet a sign of imminent war, but it is a clear message. “What we’re seeing is calibrated escalation,” Harari says. “Hezbollah is raising the temperature without crossing the threshold into full conflict. But if Iran is drawn into a direct confrontation with the United States, Hezbollah will almost certainly feel compelled to demonstrate that it stands with its patron.”
A third expert, Dr. Lina Khoury, a Lebanese political sociologist, emphasizes the domestic pressures inside Lebanon that complicate the picture. “Lebanon is in the midst of severe economic and political crisis,” she explains.
“Many Lebanese fear that Hezbollah’s involvement in a broader conflict would bring devastating consequences. …. If Iran signals that the moment has come to act, Hezbollah will follow.”
Despite these assessments, all three experts agree that Hezbollah is unlikely to initiate a conflict on its own. Instead, its actions will depend heavily on the trajectory of U.S.–Iran tensions. As Dr. Ben‑Ami puts it, “Hezbollah’s calculus is reactive. The key question is not what Hezbollah wants, but what Iran decides.”
For now, the region remains on edge, watching for signs of whether the current standoff will remain contained — or widen into something far more dangerous.
