‘Three Sunni powers, with tremendous capabilities, are very afraid of Israel’
By Hezy Laing
The new Mecca Agreement is an emerging Saudi Arabia–Turkey–Pakistan strategic alignment centered on defense cooperation, regional coordination, and Sunni political unity.
Geopolitical analysts note that while the official text of the Mecca Pact avoids explicitly naming a single adversary.
But Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif openly named Israel as a primary catalyst for the alignment, directly calling on the Muslim world to “unite to confront the common threat posed by Israel”.
He explicitly claimed that “Israel poses a threat to all of us,” making a coordinated military and security approach an Islamic necessity.
The Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA) believes that the pact represents a significant strategic challenge for Israel.
According to JCFA analysts, senior Israeli officials fear that this agreement may evolve into a new, independent Muslim security bloc with substantial military, economic, and geopolitical weight.
In their assessment, the pact threatens to weaken Israel’s regional position, particularly the diplomatic momentum that had been building toward Saudi–Israeli normalization before October 7.
JCFA emphasizes that the Mecca Agreement could expand beyond its three founding members.
Israeli officials worry that Egypt or other Arab and Muslim states might eventually join, creating a broad Sunni coalition that does not rely on the United States and does not view Israel’s military superiority as stabilizing.
The center highlights Turkey’s role as especially problematic. Ankara’s growing military capabilities, assertive regional behavior, and ideological ambitions pose a direct challenge to Israel’s strategic posture.
JCFA notes that Israel has already begun strengthening its ties with Greece and Cyprus to counterbalance Turkey’s influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Pakistan’s participation adds a nuclear dimension that JCFA views as particularly concerning.
While Pakistan does not threaten Israel directly, its inclusion in a unified Sunni defense architecture introduces long‑term strategic uncertainties that Israel cannot ignore.
JCFA also points out that Israel is responding by deepening its security cooperation with India, both to counter Pakistan’s involvement and to reinforce Israel’s position in Asia.
At the same time, Israel is leveraging the differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE to prevent the emergence of a unified Sunni front that could constrain Israel’s freedom of action.
In JCFA’s view, the Mecca Agreement is not a symbolic gesture but a potentially transformative development in the regional balance of power.
It represents one of the most significant emerging strategic challenges for Israel in the post–October 7 landscape, with the potential to reshape alliances, limit Israeli influence, and create a new Sunni defense architecture that operates independently of Western and Israeli interests.
But is this pessimistic viewpoint justified? Is there perhaps another way of viewing it?
Eliyahu Ben-Asher is Senior Strategic Analyst for Regional Security and Military Doctrine at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).
He sees the pact as a positive sign.
Ben-Asher argues that Israel’s regional status is at its peak, and that the fact that various forces are uniting against it is a positive indication of its power.
“Three Sunni powers, with tremendous capabilities, are today very afraid of Israel,” he says.
He explains that in the past, when Israel was perceived as weak and small, there was no need for such a union, but as it becomes a superpower, the fear among its neighbors increases.
However, he emphasizes that the immediate motivation for the current union is Iran’s unrestrained conduct in recent months, which has begun to turn its weapons not only at Israel but also at its Arab neighbors.
In a harsh criticism of Saudi Arabia, Ben Asher describes the kingdom as having demonstrated significant weakness in the face of Iranian and Houthi threats.
According to him, Saudi Arabia has been exposed as a “country of oil and money” without a real national backbone, which has forced it to seek outside assistance from countries such as Turkey and India.
He cites a well-known insight that there are only four “real” states in the Middle East: Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Israel, while the others are “tribes with flags.”
At the same time, Ben Asher sees a surprising bright spot in the image of the UAE.
According to him, the UAE is succeeding in positioning itself as a rising regional power with a clear strategic backbone vis-à-vis the Iranian axis, in contrast to other Arab countries.
The tightening alliance between Israel and the UAE is a significant counterweight in the regional playground, while Israel continues to be a deterrent that is reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East.
