Israel must target Hezbollah’s financial networks, its control over Lebanese state institutions, and its narrative of ‘resistance’.

Hezy Laing

The IDF has been fighting Hezbollah almost non-stop for the past two and a half years and while it has s made significant progress (eliminating most of the leadership and many of the officers) it still has not achieved victory and put an end to the threat to its citizens from the north.

Oded Ailam, a former senior Mossad operations officer and one of Israel’s most experienced experts on Lebanese and Iranian proxy networks, has argued in recent interviews and closed‑door briefings that the current regional moment represents a rare strategic opportunity for the IDF to weaken Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon, disrupt its military entrenchment, and reshape the balance of power along the northern border.

He bases this assessment on several converging factors:

• Hezbollah’s heavy operational commitments in Syria and along the Israel–Lebanon border
• The economic collapse inside Lebanon, which has eroded Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy
• Iran’s overextension across multiple fronts (Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Gaza)
• The IDF’s expanded operational freedom and improved intelligence picture since 2023
• The growing willingness of Western and Arab states to pressure Hezbollah diplomatically and financially

Ailam has emphasized that Hezbollah’s political dominance in Lebanon is not absolute, and that its military infrastructure—particularly in the south and the Bekaa Valley—has become more vulnerable due to internal Lebanese fragmentation and Iran’s resource constraints.

Core pillars of Ailam’s strategy

1. Break Hezbollah’s grip by attacking its enabling environment
In his 2026 article Not an Accidental Failure: Israel’s Approach in Lebanon Keeps Hezbollah Alive, Ailam criticizes past Israeli policy for treating Hezbollah as a purely military problem. He argues that Israel must target Hezbollah’s financial networks, its control over Lebanese state institutions, and its narrative of “resistance,” while supporting alternative Lebanese power centers that can erode its domestic legitimacy.

2. Use the current moment as a rare strategic window
In media appearances on clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, Ailam frames the present as a rare convergence: Hezbollah overstretched in Syria, Lebanon in economic collapse, Iran under pressure, and Israel with improved intelligence and operational freedom. His recommendation is a sustained campaign to degrade Hezbollah’s precision‑missile project, disrupt its command structure, and weaken its coercive monopoly—without seeking to “destroy Lebanon” itself.

3. From targeted assassinations to decisive strategic outcomes
In his 2026 JCFA piece From Strategic Assassination to a Decisive Plan: The New Equation Against Hamas, Ailam argues that Israel must move beyond episodic killings of commanders toward a comprehensive strategy: dismantling Hamas’s financial base, underground infrastructure, external leadership, and ideological recruitment pipeline. He sees October 7 as proof that partial deterrence is insufficient and calls for a decisive restructuring of Gaza’s security architecture.