Any U.S.‑led strike would be interpreted in Tehran as an Israeli‑driven initiative.
By Hezy Laing
Iran’s likely response to a joint U.S.–Israel attack would unfold across multiple fronts, combining direct missile strikes, proxy warfare, global terror operations, and asymmetric escalation designed to impose costs far beyond the battlefield.
According to Dr. Yossi Mansharof of the Misgav Institute, regime‑linked discourse in Tehran has increasingly emphasized preemptive and retaliatory options as U.S. forces reinforce the region and Washington escalates deterrent messaging.
Senior Iranian figures have openly threatened a preemptive strike, signaling that Tehran views a confrontation as both possible and potentially unavoidable.
While Iran would certainly target U.S. assets in the Gulf, its most immediate and politically valuable target would be Israel.
Tehran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC Commander‑in‑Chief Hossein Salami, and Quds Force operatives, consistently frame Israel as the “primary enemy,” and any U.S.‑led strike would be interpreted in Tehran as an Israeli‑driven initiative.
Iran’s first wave of retaliation would likely involve ballistic missiles and long‑range drones, capabilities it has repeatedly demonstrated in attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Israel itself.
Mansharof notes that Iran’s missile and drone arsenal remains its most reliable and scalable tool for rapid retaliation.
A second layer of response would involve Iran’s regional proxies.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, with an estimated 150,000 rockets, remains Tehran’s most powerful forward arm.
The IRGC could also activate militias in Syria and Iraq, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, to open additional fronts against Israel.
The Misgav analysis highlights the possibility of a ground incursion by an Axis of Resistance actor under Quds Force guidance—an option Iran has discussed in internal messaging.
Iran may also pursue asymmetric and global operations, including targeted assassinations of Israeli officials or civilians abroad, cyberattacks on Israeli infrastructure, and activation of sleeper cells.
Mansharof warns that Iran could even attempt operations inside the United States, a scenario Iranian officials have hinted at in past threats.
Recent escalations underscore how quickly such a confrontation could spiral.
In June 2025, Israeli strikes in Tehran triggered mass rallies, missile launches from Iran toward northern Israel, and retaliatory Israeli intercepts over Ashkelon.
These events illustrate the speed with which Iran can mobilize its missile forces and the volatility of its domestic response.
Ultimately, Iran’s retaliation would be designed not only to punish Israel militarily but to project resilience, rally domestic support, and demonstrate that any attack on Iranian soil carries a regional price.
