If the IDF stays out of northern Gaza for an extended period, the results for southern Israel will likely be grim.
By Yaakov Lappin, JNS
During the first stage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement that took effect on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces is to retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor separating Egypt from Gaza and preventing mass weapons smuggling.
While this is welcome news, the IDF is also set to carry out a staged withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor in northern Gaza, and the Cabinet has opted to outsource security checkpoint screening of Gazans moving into the north of the Strip to an American company.
This raises serious security and operational concerns, since the ability of any U.S. contractor to disrupt Hamas’s obvious intentions to re-entrench itself in Jabalia, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun is highly doubtful, particularly without the IDF on the ground nearby.
According to the agreement, there will be a gradual withdrawal of the IDF’s 99th Division from the Netzarim Corridor, while the 162nd Division, which has been clearing Hamas terrorists and infrastructure from northern Gaza since mid-October 2024, will be redeployed to a perimeter separating northern Gaza from Israel.
The IDF’s 143rd Division will redeploy to the perimeter area separating southern Gaza from Israel. The perimeter extends about 0.6 miles into Gaza and is largely devoid of structures at this stage.
The IDF was able to evacuate tens of thousands of Gaza civilians from northern Gaza to the Al-Mawasi humanitarian area near Khan Yunis, stripping away Hamas’s human shields and making it easier to take on the few thousand Hamas terrorists in the area, most of them freshly recruited.
These new recruits had no training and were lured by the promise of a regular paycheck. They were being locally controlled by field commanders and armed with assault rifles, RPGs and remote-control explosives.
A large number of these inexperienced recruits (over 1,000) surrendered in recent months, though the veteran Hamas terrorists preferred to fight to the death.
Predictably, Hamas exploited the IDF’s eight-month absence from northern Gaza last year to begin re-entrenching, and using hospitals, schools and mosques as terrorism command centers.
Now, Hamas will be looking to move back into northern Gaza, posing a significant threat to southern Israeli communities such as Sderot and Nir Am.
Should this withdrawal prove temporary, and if the IDF resumes counter-terrorism operations after the first stage of the ceasefire is complete, Israel will be able to reverse the damage and rebuild its momentum.
But if it stays out of northern Gaza for an extended period, the results for southern Israel will likely be grim.
Letting foreign contractors handle screening processes at Netzarim practically eliminates direct Israeli oversight.
“[As part of] our preparations in the field, we will be adjusting our deployment and our gradual withdrawal from specific locations and routes from within Gaza. In accordance with the agreement and the political echelon’s directive, we are strengthening our defensive position along the Gaza Strip border, which means we are changing the forces, where they are located, having strong defense for any scenario that might happen,” a senior IDF official confirmed on Saturday evening.
“As we know and history shows, Hamas is a terror organization that does not always respect agreements,” the official added.
The phased withdrawal, planned to occur over the next 42 days, will see IDF troops repositioned along defensive lines bordering the Gaza Strip.
“We didn’t start preparing for this today,” said the official. “This is something we always try and prepare in advance [for], anything that the political echelon might direct us to do. And that’s what we’re doing now. We’re focusing obviously on the first stages that are happening in the coming days, specifically in that same corridor.”
The IDF’s Arabic spokesperson has published announcements to Gazans warning them not to approach IDF troops as well.
There are concerns, too, over the boost the deal may give to jihadist forces in Judea and Samaria, where Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and local terror factions have been trying to create new terror infrastructure with Iranian assistance in the form of money and weapons smuggling from Jordan.
As part of the deal, Israel will release terrorists to Judea and Samaria, “some of them with blood on their hands,” said the official, “which means we have to remain at peak readiness for a range of different scenarios to be ready to defend civilians, to make sure that the stability is kept in that region.”
As such, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has ordered several military companies to deploy to Judea and Samaria as reinforcements.
The IDF will conduct “offensive operations and enhanced defensive measures in communities and on main routes, particularly concerning the release of prisoners” in Judea and Samaria, according to the source.
