With the ceasefire that followed, the Israeli military established its new doctrine of “forward defense,” operating from five outposts inside the southern Lebanese buffer zone.
By Yaakov Lappin, JNS
After the new school year began in Israel on Sept. 1, a fragile sense of normalcy is returning to the country’s northern border, with a Walla report on that day stating that some 76% of residents displaced by the war with Hezbollah have now returned to their homes.
This return has been enabled not only by a massive degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities during Operation Northern Arrows (Sept. to Nov. 2024), but also by a new and proactive Israeli security doctrine.
This has seen the IDF strike Hezbollah targets almost daily, thwarting the Lebanese terror militia’s efforts to rebuild its capabilities.
In Beirut, meanwhile, the Lebanese government’s recent moves have been aimed at Hezbollah’s disarmament, but this effort is undermined by a weak army, including its Shi’ite personnel, some of whom are complicit with Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is unable to force Hezbollah to disarm without triggering a civil war that it has no confidence of winning.
An assessment from an Israeli security official detailed the devastating blow inflicted on Hezbollah during Operation Northern Arrows, which created the conditions for the current security situation.
According to the assessment, the operation eliminated between 4,000 to 5,000 Hezbollah commanders and operatives, with another 9,000 removed (killed or wounded) from its combat reserves.
The terror group’s elite Radwan commando force was rendered “not fit for a large-scale offensive operation,” with all of its frontline invasion infrastructure dismantled.
The IDF also destroyed between 70% and 80% of Hezbollah’s short-range rocket launchers, meaning that Hezbollah’s ability to attack Israel with rockets and missiles has been reduced to “sporadic, isolated launches.”
The IDF has dismantled approximately 1,500 underground infrastructure sites, including all offensive cross-border tunnels.
With the ceasefire that followed, the Israeli military established its new doctrine of “forward defense,” operating from five outposts inside the southern Lebanese buffer zone.
The IDF works to strike remaining terror infrastructure, restrict the movement of Hezbollah operatives, and prevent the group from rebuilding its capabilities south of the Litani River.
The ongoing strikes, such as the one on September 1 against engineering equipment being used to rehabilitate terror infrastructure in Yaroun and Ramyah, are a direct application of this proactive doctrine.
Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a Middle East specialist at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and a former deputy head for assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence, told JNS, “The ability of the Lebanese government to operate its army against Hezbollah is extremely limited because of the danger of deteriorating into a civil war. They will prefer any compromise over a military confrontation with Hezbollah.”
Neriah argued that Israel’s current proactive posture is essential to preventing Hezbollah’s recovery.
“It must be assumed that as long as the IDF is on guard and striking Hezbollah, the chance that it will be able to deploy heavy weapons against Israel is low. However, if it adopts a guerrilla strategy while we are in the south, this will make it difficult for us. A total cessation of IDF operations will bring the Radwan force to the border again,” he warned.
Neriah also cautioned against an over-extension of Israel’s ground presence, advising against a new, large-scale security zone.
“Apart from precise raids following precise intelligence, it is recommended that the IDF not begin an adventure of creating a security zone,” he stated.
The ongoing political moves in Beirut, such as a recent meeting between the Lebanese president and prime minister to discuss the disarmament of Hezbollah plan are seen by many observers as largely symbolic.
A report in the pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al-Liwaa noted that the LAF plan was a “general” one with no operational activity until a political consensus is reached, a consensus that is unlikely ever to materialize.
Professor Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University and chair of contemporary history of the Middle East, argued that while the IDF’s actions are making it difficult for Hezbollah, they are not delivering a decisive blow.
“The IDF’s activity helps to make it difficult for Hezbollah to rebuild its capabilities, but it is doubtful whether in the long run there is a fundamental and long-term solution here, unless Israel escalates and expands the scope of its operations and these become more massive,” Zisser told JNS.
He added, “Hezbollah has preserved many of its capabilities; it has thousands of armed operatives and part of its projectile arsenal. So our activity harasses and makes it difficult for it, but does not really damage its capabilities.”
Zisser stated that if Hezbollah attempts to re-establish its presence in southern Lebanon, massive Israeli air activity and likely ground operations would be required, if the Lebanese army would let Hezbollah return to the area.
“The Lebanese government is trying [to counter Hezbollah] and wants to, but we are talking about intentions, not actual implementation,” he said. “The army is torn. Sixty percent of its soldiers are Shi’ites, so it would definitely prefer that everything be done amicably and not in confrontation. The army is trying to hold on where it can, but without a confrontation that challenges Hezbollah, whose interest for now is to keep its head down. For good intentions, the government in Beirut gets a 10. For actual implementation, it gets an insufficient grade.”
