‘Successive Israeli governments, including senior officials in the National Security Council, IDF General Staff, and Foreign Ministry, have avoided confronting Egypt over treaty violations, allowing the situation to escalate unchecked.’
By Hezy Laing
A recent security assessment by Col. (res.) Meir Most has reignited debate over the trajectory of Israel‑Egypt relations, presenting what he describes as clear evidence of a strategic shift in Cairo’s military posture.
In an interview on the TOV news network, Most said that Egypt is actively preparing for war with Israel, arguing that the scale, location and nature of Egypt’s military buildup cannot be explained by threats emanating from Africa or internal security concerns.
According to him, Egyptian military planning now treats Israel as “the main and only enemy.”
Most’s analysis focuses heavily on developments in the Sinai Peninsula, which he says has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade.
Under the 1979 Israel‑Egypt Peace Treaty, Egypt is restricted in the number and type of forces it may deploy in Sinai, particularly in Zones B and C.
Yet Egypt has effectively turned Sinai into a large forward-operating military zone, with armored brigades, mechanized divisions, and air force assets stationed far beyond treaty limits.
Satellite documentation shows tank concentrations, artillery positions, and new military infrastructure, including expanded runways at bases such as Bir Gifgafa and El Arish.
One of the most alarming developments, according to Most, was Egypt’s joint aerial exercise with China, conducted partly over Sinai airspace.
This drill—reportedly involving Chinese J‑10 fighters and Egyptian F‑16s—constitutes a direct breach of security understandings, since foreign militaries are not permitted to operate in Sinai under the peace framework.
Most also notes intensified Egyptian Air Force training cycles, including low‑altitude strike simulations and cross‑theater deployment rehearsals.
Most sharply criticizes Israel’s “dangerous silence.”
Successive Israeli governments, including senior officials in the National Security Council, IDF General Staff, and Foreign Ministry, have avoided confronting Egypt over treaty violations, allowing the situation to escalate unchecked.
He warns that failure to enforce the treaty erodes Israel’s strategic depth and encourages further Egyptian militarization.
Most concludes that Israel must urgently demand full adherence to the peace agreement, reassert sovereignty in sensitive zones, and halt the unchecked Egyptian buildup that threatens regional stability.
Echoing these concerns is Lt. Col. (res.) Eli Dekel, a veteran intelligence officer and expert on Egypt.
Dekel has published analyses on Egyptian force deployment, the evolution of the Sinai security framework, and shifts in Cairo’s strategic doctrine.
Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai, including expanded armored formations, new air bases and intensified training cycles constitutes a systematic breach of the 1979 peace treaty.
Dekel warns that Israel’s failure to respond enables a long‑term Egyptian strategic repositioning that could eventually threaten Israel’s southern front.
He urges strict enforcement of treaty limits.
