“Successive Israeli governments, including senior officials in the National Security Council, IDF General Staff, and Foreign Ministry, have avoided confronting Egypt over treaty violations, allowing the situation to escalate unchecked.”
By Hezy Laing
A recent security assessment by Col. (res.) Meir Most has reignited debate over the trajectory of Israel‑Egypt relations, presenting what he describes as clear evidence of a strategic shift in Cairo’s military posture.
In an interview on the TOV news network, Most said that Egypt is actively preparing for war with Israel, arguing that the scale, location and nature of Egypt’s military buildup cannot be explained by threats emanating from Africa or internal security concerns.
According to him, Egyptian military planning now treats Israel as “the main and only enemy.”
Most’s analysis focuses heavily on developments in the Sinai Peninsula, which he says has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade.
Under the 1979 Israel‑Egypt Peace Treaty, Egypt is restricted in the number and type of forces it may deploy in Sinai, particularly in Zones B and C.
Yet Egypt has effectively turned Sinai into a large forward-operating military zone, with armored brigades, mechanized divisions, and air force assets stationed far beyond treaty limits.
Satellite documentation shows tank concentrations, artillery positions, and new military infrastructure, including expanded runways at bases such as Bir Gifgafa and El Arish.
One of the most alarming developments, according to Most, was Egypt’s joint aerial exercise with China, conducted partly over Sinai airspace.
This drill—reportedly involving Chinese J‑10 fighters and Egyptian F‑16s—constitutes a direct breach of security understandings, since foreign militaries are not permitted to operate in Sinai under the peace framework.
Most also notes intensified Egyptian Air Force training cycles, including low‑altitude strike simulations and cross‑theater deployment rehearsals.
Most sharply criticizes Israel’s “dangerous silence.”
Successive Israeli governments, including senior officials in the National Security Council, IDF General Staff, and Foreign Ministry, have avoided confronting Egypt over treaty violations, allowing the situation to escalate unchecked.
He warns that failure to enforce the treaty erodes Israel’s strategic depth and encourages further Egyptian militarization.
Most concludes that Israel must urgently demand full adherence to the peace agreement, reassert sovereignty in sensitive zones, and halt the unchecked Egyptian buildup that threatens regional stability.
Echoing these concerns is Lt. Col. (res.) Eli Dekel, a veteran intelligence officer and expert on Egypt.
Dekel has published analyses on Egyptian force deployment, the evolution of the Sinai security framework, and shifts in Cairo’s strategic doctrine.
Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai, including expanded armored formations, new air bases and intensified training cycles constitutes a systematic breach of the 1979 peace treaty.
Dekel warns that Israel’s failure to respond enables a long‑term Egyptian strategic repositioning that could eventually threaten Israel’s southern front.
He urges strict enforcement of treaty limits.
11 Comments
Harold'sCousin
September 9, 2026Most is wrong. The massive buildup followed on the weak Gaza border seal. Tunnels galore. Israel asked Egypt to seal the border. Here’s where Most is an insult to our intelligence. To do so, Egypt destroyed an entire border town on their side of the Gaza border. And Egypt thought of a flooding tunnel to stop the infiltration of Hamas.
Egypt hates Hamas and the Islamic Brotherhood more than they do Israel. When I was in Egypt, there was a blind not hatred but a view Israel was despicable, not among the leadership, ElSisi, but pervasively among the intellectually dearth, as in most Egyptians.
Israeli’s do biz with Egypt big time especially in the textile business. Israel failed to invite Egyptians into the greater tent.
Militarily, Egypt will do everything to keep out the MB. We saw murders, bloodshed, oppression when MB was in charge. Israel, like now in Iran, sits idly by. Israel does not have clean hands. They have been so self centered in their view, as a good option to being negatively impacted by others, and focused on building out Ertz Israel, that they missed the obvious greater self preservation option, making one’s enemies one’s friends.
Egypt unless corruptly won’t allow one Hamas or MB to pass through Sinai. Most wants to be blind to this. To heck with his analysis. Israel would be smart handing over weaponry Egypt needs, new and beneficial to the cause to Egypt.
ROGER Yosef MAYO
September 9, 2026How do you know this? Are you an expert too?
Shabak
September 9, 2026Well I guess that’s your side of the explanation. Or Egypt may have helped seal off tunnels with hamas, Egypt traditionally has not done much to foster a better relationship with israel. Furthermore they don’t need forward bases, time concentrations group deployments Airfield to deal with hamas.
Ray Lugnasadh
September 9, 2026I lived through most of this as witness from 1960, forward. I was no lump on a log, ignormus with a duh IQ. The fact is Hamas and Gazans build many tunnels to avoid the border inspections of persons and materiel. Egypt did nothing. That strip was out of Israeli control.. Egypt respected the Israel agreement. Then the bombings and similar started. Israel asked and diplomatically pushed Egypt to act. Nothing, as you say, indifferent, but not; There is a cast/pale over Egypt’s attitude towards Israel. Egypt dragged its feet until after their freedom from their dictator when their intelligentsia realized the MB wanted their heads. Turning on a dime, the Egyptian Army aggressively fought to terminate MB. They were mostly successful, with some fleeing to Gaza through those tunnels, and some going on into Lebanon. At the same time Israel and Egypt are firmly opposed to any Gazan MB aka Hama gaining entry to either state. Here’s where you’re mistaken. Israel and Egypt both want the Egyptian Army near the Gazan border ready to kill any invasion of Gazans. Each country is in tacit agreement to allow the troops to stay. See, more factual historical education.
Shimon
September 9, 2026Right…..you’re thinking is what got us into the ’73 war, and Oct. 7
You are ignorant of Islam, just like those who think peace with the Saudis is coming.
Pavehawg
September 9, 2026Israel needs to talk with Egypt as an equal neighbor. Allowing the red Chinese to operate in the Sinai was both wrong and against the treaty. We must keep an eye on Egypt, especially now that they’re kissing the red Chinese’s ass.
Ray Lugnasadh
September 9, 2026China, as intelligent, thoughtful including shrewd as they are, still depends on oil and gas. They must, not need, but must have flows of both coming to them for their economy to function. When the war started, they had 260 days in their reserves. That’s now 7 months. In the interim, they have hornswaggled the US to allow oil to flow through via the 935 VL tankers. That was interrupted during this time. 7 months x 30 = 210 days, adding back oil that arrived, let’s say 100 days worth. So, China has as a good ballpark 150 days of oil left, 4-5 months. The US blew up 8 VL tankers in the past week, all Iranian. No more oil from Russia, effectively. Unlike at the beginning, the US will now blow up every tanker taking oil from Kharg Is. China is projecting a myth. They are screwed. You know they lost Venezuelan oil, and Russian oil is the rate of a leak, as is oil from Iran. Watch the oil flow numbers. Japan got shut out in 1939 and went to war. Watch the game.
Lampa
September 9, 2026I doubt the veracity of this report. Egypt will gain nothing fighting Israel. Their enemies are the MB as well as the militant Palestinians…
Fred Gotlieb
September 9, 2026I can’t believe the total ignorance of the previous comments. Your article is very alarming to people who love the Jewish State of Israel in the Land of Israel. It is so blatantly obvious that the Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Desert in close proximity to Israel’s borders is a very dangerous situation for Israel. This buildup is not allowed in the peace treaty nor is it necessary for peacetime activity. It is only necessary if Egypt is planning to go to war with Israel. Israel would be in a very dangerous position if Egypt attacked because Israel’s army would be stretched thin having too many fronts to deal with and Iran as well. God forbid Turkey would join in with it’s large army and Israel might not survive all that. Therefore it is necessary for Israel to demand that Egypt withdraw its forces to the agreed lines of the peace treaty. If Egypt refuses, then their intentions would be obvious and Israel would need to make a pre-emptive strike as in 1967.
Ray Luggnasadh
September 9, 2026Yes, And Iran attacked concurrently, and hordes of Houthi’s from the south, and Syria and Libya! Let’s list them all! And the ultra-Orthodox inside Israel. All against you and the weak Israeli’s.
There is a word for both of you, fear-mongers.
Netanyahu in your mind is a strategy incompetent. I place my bet in the Israeli Military leaders and Mr Netanyahu.
Steven Kranish
September 9, 2026Don’t forget, Israel can nuke ’em till the