As Israel’s dominance grows, the chances that its attacks may lead to the downfall of the Islamic regime increases.
By Hezy Laing
Are Israel’s war goals changing? IDF Spokesman Effie Defrin originally said the goal of the Rising Lion campaign was, “dismantling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and removing its capabilities to annihilate Israel.”
However, when asked recently whether regime change in Iran was one of Israel’s objectives, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “It certainly could be the result, because the Iranian regime is very weak.”
In an Israeli television interview, Netanyahu restated this possible goal, “King Cyrus freed the Jews, perhaps now we’ll free the Persians”.
Defense Minister Israel Katz tweeted a similar message today, “A tornado is whipping through Iran. Symbols of the regime are exploding and falling down and millions of citizens are fleeing. This is how a dictatorship crumbles.”
The original goal of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion was to deliver a decisive, preemptive blow against Iran’s nuclear weapons program and its capacity to threaten Israel’s survival.
Specifically, the operation aimed to roll back an existential threat to Israel, in line with the country’s long-standing “Begin Doctrine,” which seeks to prevent hostile states from acquiring nuclear weapons.
This meant setting back Iran’s efforts to build nuclear weapons by striking nuclear facilities and eliminating central nuclear personnel.
Israel also wanted to cripple Iran’s ability to respond effectively by eliminating key military leaders, disrupting command and control, and destroying missile and air defense infrastructure.
But as Israel’s dominance grows, the chances that its attacks may lead to the downfall of the Islamic regime increases.
Public discontent in Iran is high. Recent years have seen repeated waves of protests against the regime, most notably the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement after Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022, and ongoing economic, environmental, and social grievances.
Observers note that the regime’s vulnerability is increasing, and opposition factions have called for renewed mass mobilization, but the immediate effect of the war has been to suppress large-scale protest activity, at least temporarily.
